Baron Dave Romm
Campaign 2010
By Baron Dave Romm
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The case for
In the past few weeks, I've gone over why no sane person would vote for any Tea Party Republican: introduced in The Campaign Begins, and more formal essays/links in Campaign 2010: Returning the Favor, Campaign 2010: In Karl Rove's Face. But it's not enough to vote against a candidate, I like to vote for a candidate. At minimum, I want someone in office who will support the positions I do and play well with others who also support the positions I do. 100% congruency is very rare, and I'm willing to treat politics as a vector: Heading in the right direction is good.
The Benedict Arnold Express has got me mad. Even if you don't buy into everything that this Congress has done, you have to weigh in favor of the good. When you compare and contrast the Democratic Party comes out as the clear winner. This is an important election.
Barack Obama has been a good president, and the Democratically controlled Congress has done a good job
They haven't been perfect, and it's taken a long time to unravel eight years of Bush (most of which were with GOP control of both houses of Congress), but the overall record is impressive.
When removed from the Big Lies from the right, most of the accomplishments of Obama and the Democrats remain popular. And for the right reasons. For example, outside the disgraceful and highly partisan glare of the conservative US news media Obama And U.S. Remain Popular Overseas NPR 6/17/10. More on this on the section on polls, below.
Obama's accomplishments are historic and popular
Health Care Reform
For over a hundred years, since Teddy Roosevelt, many presidents tried to pass some version of Health Care Reform, but it took Barack Obama and Democratic control of both houses to get it done.
Health Care Reform is popular, and specific provisions very popular, and people want more. salon.com 9/25/10 (click through the ads):
A new AP poll finds that Americans who think the law should have done more outnumber those who think the government should stay out of health care by 2-to-1.
"I was disappointed that it didn't provide universal coverage," said Bronwyn Bleakley, 35, a biology professor from Easton, Mass.
More than 30 million people would gain coverage in 2019 when the law is fully phased in, but another 20 million or so would remain uninsured. Bleakley, who was uninsured early in her career, views the overhaul as a work in progress.
The poll found that about four in 10 adults think the new law did not go far enough to change the health care system [emphasis mine -- BDR], regardless of whether they support the law, oppose it or remain neutral. On the other side, about one in five say they oppose the law because they think the federal government should not be involved in health care at all.
I referenced this last week, but it bears repeating here: Shhh... The Health Care Bill is Working (Just Don't Tell Anyone) DKos Diary from jpmassar 9/12/10 re success of early provisions that now cover tens of thousands.
Contrast with: Huckabee Opposes Insurance For People With Pre-Existing Conditions TPM 9/17/10 "People with pre-existing conditions, he explains are like houses that have already burned down." The official death of "compassionate conservatism" or simply another Big Lie exposed?
Obama lowered taxes for most Americans
Taxes have gone down under Obama. The Misinformed Tea Party Movement Forbes, 3/19/10:For an antitax group, they don't know much about taxes. In short, no matter how one slices the data, the Tea Party crowd appears to believe that federal taxes are very considerably higher than they actually are, whether referring to total taxes as a share of GDP or in terms of the taxes paid by a typical family.
Tea Partyers also seem to have a very distorted view of the direction of federal taxes. They were asked whether they are higher, lower or the same as when Barack Obama was inaugurated last year. More than two-thirds thought that taxes are higher today, and only 4% thought they were lower; the rest said they are the same.
As noted earlier, federal taxes are very considerably lower by every measure since Obama became president [emphasis mine -- BDR]. And given the economic circumstances, it's hard to imagine that a tax increase would have been enacted last year. In fact, 40% of Obama's stimulus package involved tax cuts. These include the Making Work Pay Credit, which reduces federal taxes for all taxpayers with incomes below $75,000 by between $400 and $800.
According to the JCT, last year's $787 billion stimulus bill, enacted with no Republican support, reduced federal taxes by almost $100 billion in 2009 and another $222 billion this year. The Tax Policy Center, a private research group, estimates that close to 90% of all taxpayers got a tax cut last year and almost 100% of those in the $50,000 income range. For those making between $40,000 and $50,000, the average tax cut was $472; for those making between $50,000 and $75,000, the tax cut averaged $522. No taxpayer anywhere in the country had his or her taxes increased as a consequence of Obama's policies.
It's hard to explain this divergence between perception and reality. Perhaps these people haven't calculated their tax returns for 2009 yet and simply don't know what they owe. Or perhaps they just assume that because a Democrat is president that taxes must have gone up, because that's what Republicans say that Democrats always do. In fact, there hasn't been a federal tax increase of any significance in this country since 1993.
The Stimulus is working
A Welcome Step In The Right Direction; a dramatic chart showing how the arc of job losses under Bush and the rise of job creation under Obama. The Stimulus is working, though not quickly: New Consensus Sees Stimulus Package as Worthy Step NYTimes (reg required) 11/20/9:The legislation, a variety of economists say, is helping an economy in free fall a year ago to grow again and shed fewer jobs than it otherwise would. Mr. Obama's promise to "save or create" about 3.5 million jobs by the end of 2010 is roughly on track, though far more jobs are being saved than created, especially among states and cities using their money to avoid cutting teachers, police officers and other workers.The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act passed by Obama and the Democrats in 2008 (vs. TARP, passed under Bush) contains a jobs bill (which includes "expanding and making permanent a popular credit for businesses' research and experimentation expenses, and allowing them to write off the full value of new equipment purchases through 2011"), numerous tech provisions (which includes "$7.2 billion for broadband deployment to rural and other unserved areas.") and numerous health provisions (which includes "Health IT security" and "Patient-centered cognitive support").
"It was worth doing it's made a difference," said Nigel Gault, chief economist at IHS Global Insight, a financial forecasting and analysis group based in Lexington, Mass.
Mr. Gault added: "I don't think it's right to look at it by saying, 'Well, the economy is still doing extremely badly, therefore the stimulus didn't work.' I'm afraid the answer is, yes, we did badly but we would have done even worse without the stimulus."
Indeed, while the Tea Party Republicans (who can't add and subtract) dispute some of the numbers, the Council of Economic Advisors paints a different picture: Economic stimulus has created or saved nearly 2 million jobs, White House says Washington Post 1/13/10 and more recently Stimulus saved or created 3 million jobs: Obama aides. For example, Republican governor Charlie Crist's recovery chief says the stimulus has created an estimated 167,000 jobs St. Petersburg Times 9/20/10.
Meanwhile, the conservative news media is not helping to distinguish TARP and the stimulus. Only a third of Americans (34%) correctly say the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) was enacted by the Bush administration. Pew Research 7/10. That leads to (at least) Two dangerous myths about the stimulus: "Myth 1: TARP and the stimulus are the same thing" and "Myth 2: Stimulus cannot stimulate". Obama knows the difference, and so should you.
Estimates Say Fewer Jobs, Larger Deficits if Republicans Were in Charge Newsweek 8/26/10
The horserace makes better tv than the horse: Tracking the polls
Today's information intensive, instantaneously delivered, society has some major advantages when it comes to informing the electorate. Unfortunately, it also has a downside: When there's no news, a 24-hour "news" station or daily blogger needs to fill the time anyway, and the conservative news media just makes shit up. This is especially true about polls: After correctly predicting that Al Gore won the 2000 election, pollsters tried to "fix" their polling methods to allow for all sort of biases, real or partisan. This is why polls tend to be all over the map, and the era of non-partisan research is squeaking to a halt.
The conservative news media likes to exaggerate or outright invent a narrative where Obama and the Democrats are unpopular. Bush and the Republicans left a sour anti-Washington taste in everyone's mouth. The Democrats haven't pounced; Obama was trying to be "non-partisan" while the Tea Party Republicans played politics-as-usual with a slimy insistance on "bi-partisan" cynicism. But not everyone has the attention span of a gnat and Republicans remain more unpopular than the Demorats.
Compare CBS News/New York Times Poll. Sept. 10-14, 2010
Republicans
20% approve, 68% disapprove
Democrats 30%
approve, 58% disapprove.
Hardly good news for anyone, but way off from the mainstream media
narrative that the anti-Washington fervor is directed mainly at
Democrats. Most people are still very mad at Bush and the
Republicans, and the teabaggers are driving people away from the
Republican party in droves, and will cost
them the Senate and hurt
them regionally in the House.
You can have all sorts of fun with Gallup polls on presidential approval ratings, and compare Obama's ratings with various other presidents at the same time in their presidency. For example, Obama is about the same place Reagan was in the fall of 1982 and W was just before 9/11. What does this mean? Mostly, that the honeymoon for any president is over after a year or so. See also chart on lower right of Gallup's main page
As mentioned last week, Gallup poll "shock" part two: Democrats lead generic 9/20/10 dKos diary about Gallup poil. The tide is turning, thanks to the Teabaggers?
One clue as to how conservative the polling is: Most avoid polls that favor Democrats, or make the story about the Republican even if they're losing, and harp on any slight Republican glimmer of hope. Further, they on't ask more revealing questions of the secessionist and birthers, such as How wrong was Galileo? or Were you kidnapped and probed by aliens?
Climate Change is a wedge issue, and it's in our favor to push it. Global Warming deniers simply don't live in the world G_d created. Conservative are, quite literally, dirty politicians. The Democratic Party is doing much better, but can't get past the dirty Republicans.
Moving forward
Remember: Obama and the Democrats are the change. We want to continue moving forward.
Be passionate! We're the good guys!
A couple of ads from Demorats c/ blackwaterdog on Daily Kos, which also has uplifting videos and speeches:
Change That MattersAnd a few more, just to drive home the point:
"I Apologize"Baron Dave Romm is a conceptual artist and a noble of Ladonia who produces Shockwave Radio Theater, writes in a Live Journal demi-blog maintains a Facebook Page, plays with a very weird CD collection and an ever growing list of political links. Dave Romm reviews things at random for obscure web sites. You can read all his music recommendations from Bartcop-E. Podcasts of Shockwave Radio Theater. Permanent archive. A nascent collection of videos are on Baron Dave's YouTube channel. More radio programs, interviews and science fiction humor plays can be accessed on the Shockwave Radio audio page.
Thanks to everyone who has sent me music to play on the air.
Recommended Reading
from Bruce
Paul Krugman: Structural Failure (nytimes.com)
I really don't think there's any way to make sense of the fuss about structural unemployment unless you posit that a lot of influential people are looking for reasons not to act. Based on everything we know, this just shouldn't be an issue. What the economy needs is more demand; provide that, and you'll be amazed at how many willing, productive workers there are, currently sitting idle.
Bob Herbert: We Haven't Hit Bottom Yet (nytimes.com)
While data zealots have declared the end of the Great Recession, its pain is still very real for millions of Americans.
Mark Shields: America Without Optimism (creators.com)
Of the only man ever elected four times to the White House, the historian James MacGregor Burns wrote: "If other leaders bent under the burdens of power, Roosevelt shouldered his with zest and gaiety. He loved being president. ... The variegated facets of the presidential job called for a multitude of different roles, and Roosevelt moved from part to part with ease and confidence." FDR's optimism was contagious.
David Sirota: A Liquor-Drenched Culture (creators.com)
Here's a fact that even drug policy reform advocates can acknowledge: California's 2010 ballot initiative to legalize marijuana does, indeed, pose a real threat, as conservative culture warriors insist. But not to public health, as those conservatives claim.
Susan Estrich: Who Is Carl Paladino? (creators.com)
The Republican nominee for governor of New York doesn't spend a lot of time talking about himself, which is both good and bad. It's good because, in truth, his surprise victory over the "establishment" favorite (and Conservative Party candidate) Rick Lazio had very little to do with his qualifications and agenda, and everything to do with his tea party-infused attacks on Albany, government and the powers that are. It's bad, of course, for precisely the same reason.
Dick Cavett: Further Improbables (nytimes.com)
A continuing examination of the long odds that anyone, from Plato to Sinatra, has of actually existing.
Joe Weider: Do-It-Yourself Home Gym (creators.com)
Tip of the Week: Whatever it is you're looking for as you aim to reach your fitness goals, the odds are you won't find it in a pill. While I'm not implying that there aren't a number of good supplements on the market, I am saying that what you're looking to achieve can be reached primarily by way of diet and exercise.
Jonathan Franzen: 'I must be near the end of my career - people are starting to approve' (guardian.co.uk)
For years, he sat in this bare office, blocking out the world with earplugs - and nothing came. So how did Jonathan Franzen end up writing the Great American Novel, on the cover of Time magazine and read by Barack Obama on holiday? Ed Pilkington asks him.
Fred Kaplan: How "Howl" Changed the World (slate.com)
Allen Ginsberg's anguished protest broke all the rules-and encouraged a generation of artists to do the same.
Randy Lewis: Neil Young and Daniel Lanois Click on 'Le Noise' (Los Angeles Times)
'Le Noise' is technically a solo recording, just Young and one guitar - an electric instrument on six, an acoustic on the other two, recorded live with no overdubs, no Crazy Horse, no Crosby, Stills, Nash or any of the other pals who've often accompanied Young over the last four decades.
Bruce Springsteen: 'People thought we were gone. Finished' (guardian.co.uk)
Hobbled by legal wrangles, a frustrated Bruce Springsteen turned Born to Run's optimism on its head - and Darkness on the Edge of Town was born. With a hugely expanded reissue finally compiled, he talks to Keith Cameron.
Ben Affleck: 'It's in the hands of the movie gods' (guardian.co.uk)
Ben Affleck has completed a remarkable U-turn from box office turn-off to respected directorial talent. Matt Mueller asks him, warily, how he did it.
Hubert's Poetry Corner
"N It 2 Do Tx"
More of the Hirsute Pretty Woe Man!
The Weekly Poll
Current Question
The 'Will Lizzie Warren take an axe...?' Edition
President Obama has appointed Harvard Law Professor Elizabeth Warren to help organize the new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. The question now is whether Warren, a consumer champion, will wield the full power afforded that agency to crack down on Wall Street swindlers and speculators... Right now, the jury is still out...
There Will Be "Hell to Pay" If Elizabeth Warren Does Not Have Real Power | CommonDreams.org
Do you think Ms Warren and the CFPB will effectively protect consumers?
1.) Heck, yeah... She'll kick ass and take names...
2.) Not a chance... She's merely 'window dressing'... The Bankers rule...
3.) I haven't a frickin' clue what will happen...
Send your response to
wrote:
answered:
From The Creator of 'Avery Ant'
Reader Suggestions
Michelle in AZ
Selected Readings
from that Mad Cat, JD
In The Chaos Household
Last Night
Way too toasty!
Joins Broadway's 'American Idiot'
Billie Joe Armstrong
Green Day front man Billie Joe Armstrong is briefly joining the cast of "American Idiot," the Broadway musical he helped create based on the band's 2004 Grammy Award-winning album.
The show's producers announced Sunday that Armstrong will take over the role of persuasive drug dealer St. Jimmy for eight performances from Tuesday through Oct. 3. before leaving town to kick off his band's South American tour.
It's the Broadway debut for Armstrong, who composed and co-wrote the musical.
Armstrong temporarily replaces actor Tony Vincent, who's on leave until Oct. 12 for what producers call a personal family matter.
Billie Joe Armstrong
Alumni Gather
Sha Na Na
Four decades after performing as the penultimate act at Woodstock (having been invited by Jimi Hendrix) and three decades after a hosting a long-running TV variety show and appearing in the movie classic, "Grease," several former members of the doo-wop singing group Sha Na Na are reuniting this weekend for a special one-time-only performance.
"It feels so natural that I just have not had as much fun or felt in harmony with anybody since," said Robert Leonard, a longtime Hofstra University linguistics professor who in 1969 helped form Sha Na Na. He spent two years with the band before being offered a fellowship to Columbia Graduate School that led to a career in education.
Leonard, who sang bass and can be seen in the Woodstock movie wearing the group's signature gold lame jacket, is bringing together former members of the group for a performance Saturday at a celebration marking Hofstra's 75th anniversary. Other performers on the bill include Public Enemy, Blue Oyster Cult, Fountains of Wayne, Lisa Lisa, and hip-hop star Trey Songz
"It's being billed as from doo-wop to hip-hop," Leonard said of the bill, a somewhat eclectic lineup not dissimilar to Woodstock, where folkies like Arlo Guthrie and Richie Havens performed as well hard-rockers like The Who and Ten Years After.
Sha Na Na
New Comic Book Superhero
Silver Scorpion
Comic book fans will soon be getting their first glimpse at an unlikely new superhero - a Muslim boy in a wheelchair with superpowers.
The new superhero is the brainchild of a group of disabled young Americans and Syrians who were brought together last month in Damascus by the Open Hands Intiative, a non-profit organization founded by U.S. philanthropist and businessman Jay T. Snyder.
The superhero's appearance hasn't been finalized, but an early sketch shows a Muslim boy who lost his legs in a landmine accident and later becomes the Silver Scorpion after discovering he has the power to control metal with his mind.
Sharad Devarajan, co-founder and CEO of Liquid Comics whose company is now turning the young people's ideas into pictures and a story line, said the goal is to release the first comic book - launching the disabled Muslim superhero - in early November in both Arabic and English.
Silver Scorpion
History Spinning Off
"Pawn Stars"
The History cable channel is spinning off a personality from its reality hit "Pawn Stars."
The network will on October 25 premiere "Rusty Nuts," in which restoration expert Rick Dale brings trashed treasures back to life. Dale owns Las Vegas-based Rick's Restorations and is the go-to guy for the "Pawn Stars" team whenever the shop has an antique that needs improvement (such as a Coke machine, barber chair or 1937 gas pump).
Each episode of "Nuts" follows Dale, his staff and teenage son as they restore objects to their original, mint condition.
Executive producer Brent Montgomery said the idea was inspired by feedback from "Pawn Stars" fans about how they wanted to see more of Dale's restoration process.
"Pawn Stars"
Unions Urge Boycott
"Hobbit"
The Hollywood actors guilds and several international unions have issued an alert against the big-budget adaptation of "The Hobbit," stating that their members "are advised not to accept work on this non-union production." The guilds say the producers of the MGM/New Line fantasy blockbuster, to be directed by Peter Jackson, have rebuffed organizing efforts by the New Zealand unit of an Australian actors union.
Jackson shot back in a long statement issued on Sunday, hammering Australia's Media Entertainment and Arts Alliance (MEAA) union, threatening to move the "Hobbit" shoot to Europe and claiming his film is being used as a political football to secure gains for the guild.
The labor discord in Jackson's home country of New Zealand, where "Hobbit" will likely be shot, has simmered for several weeks. MEAA, the International Federation of Actors (FIA), and others have written to the producers objecting to the refusal to sign a union contract.
MEAA has not managed to unionize any productions in New Zealand, making the country a sore spot for actors' unions across the English-speaking world. The unions allege that productions relocate to New Zealand specifically to avoid union terms.
For SAG and AFTRA (American Federation of Television and Radio Artists) members, the advisory essentially constitutes a Do Not Work order.
"Hobbit"
Iran Revokes Director's Filming Permit
Asghar Farhadi
Iranian authorities have revoked the filming permit for internationally acclaimed director Asghar Farhadi's unfinished movie over his support for dissident filmmakers, newspapers reported on Sunday.
The Shargh newspaper quoted deputy culture minister Javad Shamaqdari as saying that authorities had revoked a permit for "Nader divorces Simin," which is still in production, because of the director's "inappropriate" comments at a recent awards ceremony.
"The decision was made over his comments at the ceremony which were not nice. He was given a week to correct his remarks but he did not," Shamaqdari said.
In a recent Iranian award ceremony Farhadi wished for "change" as he spoke out in favour of actress Golshifteh Farahani and celebrated directors Jafar Panahi, who spent over three months in jail, and Mohsen Makhmalbaf, emigre filmmaker and vocal backer of Iran's opposition Green Movement.
Asghar Farhadi
Settles Hallmark Lawsuit
Paris Hilton
Paris Hilton will be getting a little something in the mail from Hallmark this year.
The socialite has settled a lawsuit against the company over a greeting card that featured a scene seemingly ripped from her old reality show "The Simple Life." The caption read "Paris's First Day as a Waitress" and made a pun on her trademarked catch phrase, "That's Hot." In 2007, Hilton sued, claiming her publicity rights had been violated.
Last week, attorneys for Hilton and Hallmark advised a California judge that they had reached a settlement. A confidentiality provision limits the release of exact terms, but it's believed Hilton walked away with a favorable package.
The case made its way up to the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals, which handed Hilton a huge legal victory last year. The appeals court rejected Hallmark's protected-speech argument and raised doubts that the greeting card was "transformative" expression. The case was remanded back to a lower court.
Paris Hilton
Malicious Code
Stuxnet
A powerful computer code attacking industrial facilities around the world, but mainly in Iran, probably was created by experts working for a country or a well-funded private group, according to an analysis by a leading computer security company.
The malicious code, called Stuxnet, was designed to go after several "high-value targets," said Liam O Murchu, manager of security response operations at Symantec Corp. But both O Murchu and U.S. government experts say there's no proof it was developed to target nuclear plants in Iran, despite recent speculation from some researchers.
Creating the malicious code required a team of as many as five to 10 highly educated and well-funded hackers. Government experts and outside analysts say they haven't been able to determine who developed it or why.
The malware has infected as many as 45,000 computer systems around the world. Siemens AG, the company that designed the system targeted by the worm, said it has infected 15 of the industrial control plants it was apparently intended to infiltrate. It's not clear what sites were infected, but they could include water filtration, oil delivery, electrical and nuclear plants.
Stuxnet
North Dakota
Devils Lake
It's been called a slow-growing monster: a huge lake that has steadily expanded over the last 20 years, swallowing up thousands of acres, hundreds of buildings and at least two towns in its rising waters.
Devils Lake keeps getting larger because it has no natural river or stream to carry away excess rain and snowmelt. Now it has climbed within 6 feet of overflowing, raising fears that some downstream communities could be washed away if the water level isn't reduced.
No other place in America has faced such a dilemma. The nation's only other significant "closed-basin" lake is the Great Salt Lake, which was in danger of flooding housing developments in the mid-1980s. But shortly after the state spent $70 million on huge pumps, a dry spell began. Those pumps now stand idle.
The lake, about 160 miles northwest of Fargo, is the largest freshwater body in North Dakota, with an estimated shoreline of at least 1,000 miles. It's up to 75 feet deep and has attracted tourists from across the nation with excellent fishing and other recreational activities.
Devils Lake has nearly quadrupled in size since the early 1990s, flooding nearly 150,000 acres of land, inundating a million trees and destroying hundreds of homes and farm buildings. Many of those who lost property to the water were eventually bought out by the state or federal governments. The buyouts included the two tiny towns of Penn and Churchs Ferry, although some people remain in both communities.
Devils Lake
Judge Weighs Ownership
Bahia Emerald
One of several people claiming ownership of an 840-pound emerald told a judge Friday that he is the legal owner of the gigantic gem after paying just $60,000 for it soon after it was unearthed in Brazil.
Anthony Thomas said he bought the so-called Bahia Emerald in 2001. Its appraised value is now $372 million, and numerous parties are claiming ownership.
Lawyers say the well-traveled stone has made stops during the past nine years in California, Las Vegas and New Orleans, where it was kept in a bank vault that was flooded during Hurricane Katrina, leaving the gem underwater for several months.
During opening statements at the trial to test the claim of Thomas, attorney Jeffrey Baruh said his client paid for the hulking rock in a straightforward transaction but was later tricked into believing the emerald had been stolen so it could be sold to someone else for more money.
Bahia Emerald
Weekend Box Office
'Wall Street'
Movie fans are investing in Michael Douglas and Oliver Stone's "Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps," which opened as the No. 1 weekend movie with $19 million, according to studio estimates Sunday.
The 20th Century Fox release led a crop of so-so to weak newcomers, though the sequel to Douglas and Stone's 1987 hit "Wall Street" did not quite set off a bull market at the box office.
The Warner Bros. animated adventure "Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga'Hoole" was No. 2 with a soft opening of $16.3 million.
Estimated ticket sales for Friday through Sunday at U.S. and Canadian theaters, according to Hollywood.com. Final figures will be released Monday.
1. "Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps," $19 million.
2. "Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga'Hoole," $16.3 million.
3. "The Town," $16 million.
4. "Easy A," $10.7 million.
5. "You Again," $8.3 million.
6. "Devil," $6.5 million.
7. "Resident Evil: Afterlife," $4.9 million.
8. "Alpha and Omega," $4.7 million.
9. "Takers," $1.7 million.
10. "Inception," $1.2 million.
'Wall Street'
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